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Between The Lines...
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From Charlotte Home
Builders Association |
THE
CHARLOTTE
HOUSING MARKET
2007
vs. 2006 with additional details for 1Q08
It
is important to understand that the Charlotte MSA (Anson, Cabarrus,
Gaston, Mecklenburg and
Union
Counties
in
North Carolina
and
York
County
in
South Carolina
) housing market, despite its challenges, is in much better shape than the
nation, its Census Division (South Atlantic), or
North Carolina
.
Perhaps
the best measure of the broad for-sale housing market is existing home
sales.
2007
vs. 2006
A
comparison of 2007 with 2006 for the nation shows a 17% drop in existing
home sales. The South Atlantic
Census Division (District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia,
Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia)
presented a 23% drop (primarily because of Florida), and North Carolina an
18% drop.
Charlotte
presented only a 4% drop – a remarkable accomplishment given the
national difficulties.
The
median price of existing single family homes has dropped 7% nationally
over this period, versus steady pricing in
Charlotte
.
As
we look at the new housing market the best measure is residential permits.
National
residential permits were off 26% 2007 vs. 2006.
The South Atlantic Census Region was off 36% (again primarily
because of
Florida
),
North Carolina
was off 18% and Charlotte 19%. The
new housing market in
Charlotte
is closely tracking
North Carolina
and its resistance to the South Atlantic Census Division and the National
malaise.
The
median price of new single family homes has dropped 5% nationally over
this period, versus a 4% increase in
Charlotte
.
THE
CHARLOTTE
HOUSING MARKET
2007
vs. 2006 with additional details for 1Q08
Twelve
Months Ending 1Q08 vs. 1Q07
Although
1Q08 data is not yet available as tracked above, some data sources are
available for the Charlotte Market (Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell,
Lancaster
,
Lincoln
, Mecklenburg, Union,
York
Counties
) for the year ending 1Q08 and 1Q08.
A
comparison of the twelve months ending 1Q08 vs. 1Q07 reveals an existing
market down 16% on a 1% increase in the median price where as the new
market was down 20% on a 9% increase in median price.
The
total (new and existing)
Charlotte
for-sale housing market first slipped 2Q07 when total closings fell 5%
2Q07 versus 2Q06. Median
pricing however continue to climb at 3%.
3Q07
saw a 14% drop in closings with an additional 4% increase in the median
price. 4Q07 reported a 20%
drop in closings with 5% increase in the median price.
1Q08
was a particularly difficult time period with total closings dropping 36%
on a 1% increase in median price. Both
new and existing closings were equally hurt.
This
analyst believes the
Charlotte
market will bottom out 2Q08 with further reductions in total closings and
a first drop in median pricing. As
previously noted,
Charlotte
’s residential title transfers never saw the run-up in the investor
market, the sub-prime/alt A market, or pricing that has been seen
nationally. Consequently its
difficulties will be less severe and its return to normalcy quicker.
As partial proof, note that
Charlotte
is the only existing home market of the 20 tracked by Case-Shiller with
continued appreciation (1.5%) for the twelve months ending February 2008.
For
home buyers without a house to sell we are near the bottom of the
Charlotte
market – and the best of times to consider looking and buying depending
upon your ability to satisfy desire.
For
home buyers with a house to sell consider that good times, average times
and difficult times present very similar pricing differentials, what you
sell your house for will be matched by a similar value in the house you
buy.
CGG:
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